• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0705

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat May 22 23:09:14 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 222309
    SPC MCD 222308=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0705
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0608 PM CDT Sat May 22 2021

    Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico...West Texas

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 194...

    Valid 222308Z - 230045Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 194 continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe threat continues across ww194.

    DISCUSSION...Diffluent high-level flow continues across the southern
    Rockies early this evening as 500mb flow strengthens across
    northwestern NM/southwestern CO. Additionally, weak height falls
    will overspread this region ahead of a slow-moving upper trough.
    This large-scale regime will remain favorable for organized
    supercells persisting after sunset.

    Latest radar data exhibits numerous supercells across eastern NM,
    most of which are producing large hail. Additionally, one supercell
    in particular over northeastern Lincoln County has likely produced
    hail in excess of 2 inches at times. Given the reservoir of buoyancy
    that currently extends across western TX/eastern NM, supercells
    should continue to spread northeast with new development possibly
    continuing along the western plume of moisture/instability in
    response to the approaching upper trough. Hail, along with a few
    tornadoes, remain possible.

    ..Darrow.. 05/22/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pVZWKdcSu5g0M00uvOhXLUHCzqMm5-BPH1wxDuz5qg-ZUyvt1L5xZYBg2h7tDBu_0cvp9Fab$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 30660597 36920550 36910296 30670361 30660597=20

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