Mesoscale Discussion 0704
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0551 PM CDT Sat May 22 2021
Areas affected...Eastern Colorado
Concerning...Tornado Watch 193...
Valid 222251Z - 230045Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 193 continues.
SUMMARY...The greatest threat for a tornado will exist with a mature
supercell moving along the Elbert/Lincoln County line. Instability
will decrease to the north given outflow from earlier storms, but
another 1-2 hour window of tornado risk is possible. Elsewhere, the
tornado threat will remain lower, but large hail and a few damaging
gusts may still occur into early evening.
DISCUSSION...Both the KFTG and KPUX radars have shown an increase in
0-1 km shear over the past hour or so from 10 to around 30 kts. This
has helped to foster increased low-level rotation in a storm moving
north through Lincoln County, which has produced several tornado
reports. Though the environment to the north of this storm has been
impacted by outflow from earlier convection, this mature supercell
will maintain some risk for a tornado for the next hour or two,
particularly if it can take on a more easterly motion. The low-level
jet will only modestly increase near the KS/CO border, but capping
will also become greater with time to the east.
Storms in the northern portion of WW 193 have motions that have
quickly moved them north of the boundary into more stable air. Large
hail and damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado will remain
possible with any storms that can mature before crossing the
Storms in southeastern Colorado have mainly had a disorganized
character to them as they move off of the terrain. This is likely
due to a slightly less instability and weaker shear than points to
the north and south. The greatest threat in this region would likely
be from storms congealing and a cold pool driven wind gust threat
developing within the Plains to the east.
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