• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0704

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat May 22 22:52:16 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 222252
    SPC MCD 222251=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0704
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0551 PM CDT Sat May 22 2021

    Areas affected...Eastern Colorado

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 193...

    Valid 222251Z - 230045Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 193 continues.

    SUMMARY...The greatest threat for a tornado will exist with a mature
    supercell moving along the Elbert/Lincoln County line. Instability
    will decrease to the north given outflow from earlier storms, but
    another 1-2 hour window of tornado risk is possible. Elsewhere, the
    tornado threat will remain lower, but large hail and a few damaging
    gusts may still occur into early evening.

    DISCUSSION...Both the KFTG and KPUX radars have shown an increase in
    0-1 km shear over the past hour or so from 10 to around 30 kts. This
    has helped to foster increased low-level rotation in a storm moving
    north through Lincoln County, which has produced several tornado
    reports. Though the environment to the north of this storm has been
    impacted by outflow from earlier convection, this mature supercell
    will maintain some risk for a tornado for the next hour or two,
    particularly if it can take on a more easterly motion. The low-level
    jet will only modestly increase near the KS/CO border, but capping
    will also become greater with time to the east.

    Storms in the northern portion of WW 193 have motions that have
    quickly moved them north of the boundary into more stable air. Large
    hail and damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado will remain
    possible with any storms that can mature before crossing the

    Storms in southeastern Colorado have mainly had a disorganized
    character to them as they move off of the terrain. This is likely
    due to a slightly less instability and weaker shear than points to
    the north and south. The greatest threat in this region would likely
    be from storms congealing and a cold pool driven wind gust threat
    developing within the Plains to the east.

    ..Wendt.. 05/22/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rFlwzY94PpZkMe7sPW0WktBh1xnjXrLrMyha-q2dZXOaCZRp6V20IIMLY0Kpq3F5IA7Cf60z$=
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    LAT...LON 38450271 37610326 37220394 37220401 37360430 38040462
    39170422 39930403 40280382 40820299 40970225 40830202
    39810190 39060210 38450271=20

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