• Indian-N: I93B Formation

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Sat May 22 18:47:00 2021
    WTIO21 PGTW 221500
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93B)//
    RMKS/
    1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
    130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.1N 89.7E TO 18.0N 92.6E
    WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
    ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
    WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
    IMAGERY AT 221430Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
    NEAR 15.3N 90.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07
    KNOTS.
    2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
    NEAR 16.1N 89.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 90.0E, APPROXIMATELY 438
    NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
    SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 221024Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
    SHOW FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL
    CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE
    CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW,
    DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
    (VWS), AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL
    MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93B WILL CONSOLIDATE
    QUICKLY AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WHILE REMAINING IN
    THE SAME GENERAL AREA BEFORE TURNING SHARPLY NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM
    SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
    LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
    THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
    HOURS IS HIGH.
    3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
    231500Z.//
    NNNN
    --- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
  • From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Sun May 23 18:36:00 2021
    WTIO21 PGTW 231500
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93B) REISSUED//
    REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221451ZMAY21//
    AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
    RMKS/
    1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
    100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.1N 90.0E TO 19.4N 88.9E
    WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
    ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
    WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
    IMAGERY AT 231430Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
    NEAR 16.5N 90.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
    2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
    NEAR 16.1N 90.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 90.0E, APPROXIMATELY 369
    NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
    SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 231012Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
    SHOW FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL
    CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS FAVORABLE
    CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH ROBUST OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS
    EXCEPT THE NORTHEAST, MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
    (VWS), AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL
    MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93B WILL CONSOLIDATE
    QUICKLY AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE REMAINING IN THE
    SAME GENERAL AREA BEFORE TURNING SHARPLY NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM
    SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
    LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
    HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
    3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
    241500Z.//
    NNNN
    --- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)