• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0703

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat May 22 19:35:14 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 221935
    SPC MCD 221934=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0703
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0234 PM CDT Sat May 22 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of northeastern Colorado into southwestern

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 193...

    Valid 221934Z - 222130Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 193 continues.

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development appears likely to continue to
    increase, potentially evolving into an organizing cluster of storms
    across northeastern Colorado into southwestern Nebraska through 4-6
    PM MDT. A new severe weather watch will likely be needed northeast
    of Tornado Watch 193.

    DISCUSSION...The slow moving/stalling cold front across northeastern
    Colorado into the Nebraska Sand Hills may become a focus for
    increasing and intensifying thunderstorm development. Thunderstorms
    have already initiated southwest of Akron, perhaps aided by forcing
    associated with a weak, north-northeastward migrating MCV.=20
    Differential surface heating has contributed to strengthening of the
    frontal zone, and frontogenetic forcing may contribute to
    increasingly widespread thunderstorm development along the corridor northeastward toward the Nebraska Sand Hills through 22-00Z.=20

    In the presence of steep lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates,
    boundary-layer moisture along and south of the front appears to have contributed to CAPE on the order of 1500 J/kg, with at least some
    further increase still possible. Beneath 35-60+ kt southerly flow
    in the 500-300 mb layer, deep-layer shear is strong, and the
    environment appears conducive to the potential evolution of an
    upscale growing and organizing cluster of storms by early evening.=20=20

    Initial stronger storms probably will pose a risk for severe hail,
    with some risk for a brief tornado, before strong surface wind gusts
    become the more prominent potential severe hazard.

    ..Kerr.. 05/22/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qjnIalAAATrvO9FP2x-QmvsEUEWPbMo0-QOY0nQ_Yrn-r2_yL4dB2lmTd_0aSi12a4Gxbtdm$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 41140250 41720209 41880128 41400124 40160247 39470340
    39690379 40260355 41140250=20

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