Mesoscale Discussion 0702
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CDT Sat May 22 2021
Areas affected...southeast New Mexico...Far West Texas
Concerning...Tornado Watch 194...
Valid 221856Z - 222130Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 194 continues.
SUMMARY...Storms are expected to form after 20Z near a dryline, with
large hail, damaging gusts, and a tornado or two possible.
DISCUSSION...Substantial easterly low-level flow is maintaining
surface dewpoints along and east of a dryline over eastern Otero and
Hudspeth counties as strong heating continues. MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg
is expected by late afternoon, beneath moderate southwesterlies
aloft. The result will be a hodographs favoring slow-moving
supercells which are expected to form after 20Z.
Steep low and midlevel lapse rates as well as strong easterly storm
relative inflow with increasing SRH later today will support a
tornado as well as damaging hail threat. Storms may eventually
produce congealing outflows with damaging gusts. Capping will occur
quickly east of the dryline by early evening as heating ceases, with
little threat expected east of 103 W.
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