• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0702

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat May 22 18:57:13 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 221857
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 221856=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-222130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0702
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0156 PM CDT Sat May 22 2021

    Areas affected...southeast New Mexico...Far West Texas

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 194...

    Valid 221856Z - 222130Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 194 continues.

    SUMMARY...Storms are expected to form after 20Z near a dryline, with
    large hail, damaging gusts, and a tornado or two possible.

    DISCUSSION...Substantial easterly low-level flow is maintaining
    surface dewpoints along and east of a dryline over eastern Otero and
    Hudspeth counties as strong heating continues. MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg
    is expected by late afternoon, beneath moderate southwesterlies
    aloft. The result will be a hodographs favoring slow-moving
    supercells which are expected to form after 20Z.

    Steep low and midlevel lapse rates as well as strong easterly storm
    relative inflow with increasing SRH later today will support a
    tornado as well as damaging hail threat. Storms may eventually
    produce congealing outflows with damaging gusts. Capping will occur
    quickly east of the dryline by early evening as heating ceases, with
    little threat expected east of 103 W.

    ..Jewell/Guyer.. 05/22/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!v9GZmk5lALMiA4bu2OE0ZkFc-ok7KaaiL4KBd9vid0KsOZdMj7sJjwePfSyDsWG7AvUk69za$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

    LAT...LON 30940553 32660554 33060523 33240468 33300373 33010325
    32510308 31910308 31220316 30610347 30320397 30470487
    30660507 30940553=20



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