• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0701

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat May 22 18:23:13 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 221823
    SPC MCD 221822=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0701
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0122 PM CDT Sat May 22 2021

    Areas affected...the Arrowhead of Minnesota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 221822Z - 222045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated storms producing marginal hail or wind are
    possible after 20Z.

    DISCUSSION...Visible imagery and surface observations indicate good
    heating continues ahead of a cold front into the Arrowhead, with
    temperatures around 80 F. CU continued to increase within the moist
    air mass, with MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg. Though unstable, capping
    is currently suppressing development as of 18Z.

    Temperatures are expected to warm a few degrees more this afternoon
    as the cold front continues slowly east. Lift along the front should
    prime the moist boundary layer enough to break the cap, with
    isolated storms expected. Modest deep-layer shear and midlevel lapse
    rates may favor marginal hail in the strongest storms, along with
    gusty winds. Overall coverage of storms and marginal nature of the
    severe threat suggest a watch is unlikely.

    ..Jewell/Guyer.. 05/22/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!p6nJKyX58H6iVBllT1HqaH1P79cyycyOi1Q6BO6ZMIkfFfR_3TMjnxjyUEp9YL0pg8KxK_DO$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 47998949 47768987 47609063 47239121 47029155 46899180
    46769213 46879267 47039314 47459350 47899346 48269315
    48629259 48419197 48189140 48329089 48199008 48068965

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