Mesoscale Discussion 0701
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0122 PM CDT Sat May 22 2021
Areas affected...the Arrowhead of Minnesota
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 221822Z - 222045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated storms producing marginal hail or wind are
possible after 20Z.
DISCUSSION...Visible imagery and surface observations indicate good
heating continues ahead of a cold front into the Arrowhead, with
temperatures around 80 F. CU continued to increase within the moist
air mass, with MLCAPE to around 1000 J/kg. Though unstable, capping
is currently suppressing development as of 18Z.
Temperatures are expected to warm a few degrees more this afternoon
as the cold front continues slowly east. Lift along the front should
prime the moist boundary layer enough to break the cap, with
isolated storms expected. Modest deep-layer shear and midlevel lapse
rates may favor marginal hail in the strongest storms, along with
gusty winds. Overall coverage of storms and marginal nature of the
severe threat suggest a watch is unlikely.
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