• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0700

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat May 22 17:52:44 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 221752
    SPC MCD 221752=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0700
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1252 PM CDT Sat May 22 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of south central New Mexico

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 221752Z - 221945Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm development near the Sacramento
    Mountains may evolve into a few supercells while slowly propagating north-northeast of the higher terrain by 3-5 PM MDT.

    DISCUSSION...Although forcing for ascent, associated with one subtle perturbation progressing through the eastern periphery of the
    larger-scale western U.S. mid/upper troughing, may be glancing, if
    not passing largely to the north, attempts at deepening convective
    development are underway along the Sacramento Mountains. This is
    likely being aided by favorable orographic forcing for ascent,
    beneath cyclonic and at least weakly difluent high level flow.

    As low-level moisture, including surface dew points as high as the
    lower 60s across the high plains, continues to advect into the
    higher terrain on southeasterly near-surface flow, moderately large
    CAPE will continue to develop. This likely will contribute to
    increasing and intensifying thunderstorm development, which may
    slowly begin to propagate north-northeastward off the higher
    terrain, as inhibition in lower elevations erodes with further
    insolation, aided by 30 kt southerly deep-layer mean ambient flow.

    Beneath 40-50 kt flow in the 500-300 mb layer, the environment
    probably will become conducive to the evolution of a few supercells,
    with the potential to produce large hail, locally strong surface
    gusts and perhaps a tornado.

    ..Kerr/Guyer.. 05/22/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ujS_A9Nd-xH02NNK5Z69K-7MFrmijlcgx3geGGcqdFbekBUeCNM3O7WBKOo-uva1Kd2hP-Hm$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 34960583 35220534 34470495 33730488 32770515 32730565
    33930567 34960583=20

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