Mesoscale Discussion 0700
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 PM CDT Sat May 22 2021
Areas affected...Parts of south central New Mexico
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20
Valid 221752Z - 221945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm development near the Sacramento
Mountains may evolve into a few supercells while slowly propagating north-northeast of the higher terrain by 3-5 PM MDT.
DISCUSSION...Although forcing for ascent, associated with one subtle perturbation progressing through the eastern periphery of the
larger-scale western U.S. mid/upper troughing, may be glancing, if
not passing largely to the north, attempts at deepening convective
development are underway along the Sacramento Mountains. This is
likely being aided by favorable orographic forcing for ascent,
beneath cyclonic and at least weakly difluent high level flow.
As low-level moisture, including surface dew points as high as the
lower 60s across the high plains, continues to advect into the
higher terrain on southeasterly near-surface flow, moderately large
CAPE will continue to develop. This likely will contribute to
increasing and intensifying thunderstorm development, which may
slowly begin to propagate north-northeastward off the higher
terrain, as inhibition in lower elevations erodes with further
insolation, aided by 30 kt southerly deep-layer mean ambient flow.
Beneath 40-50 kt flow in the 500-300 mb layer, the environment
probably will become conducive to the evolution of a few supercells,
with the potential to produce large hail, locally strong surface
gusts and perhaps a tornado.
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