• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0699

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat May 22 16:52:13 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 221652
    SPC MCD 221651=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0699
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1151 AM CDT Sat May 22 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern New Mexico and Colorado

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 221651Z - 221845Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Initiation of scattered thunderstorms is underway, with a
    more substantive increase and intensification near and east of the
    Sangre de Cristo Mountains into the Front Range vicinity through 1-3
    PM MDT. This will be accompanied by increasing risk for hail, some
    of which could become large and potentially damaging. One or more
    severe weather watches will probably be needed.

    DISCUSSION...The elongated mid-level cold core of larger-scale
    mid/upper troughing, encompassing much of the Pacific Coast states
    into Rockies, is still over western portions of the intermountain
    region. Only a very slow eastward progression is forecast, with the
    primary short wave impulse rounding the base of the larger-scale
    troughing only gradually pivoting across the lower Colorado Valley
    through early evening.

    However, one or two more subtle perturbations are progressing
    through the eastern periphery of larger-scale cyclonic flow, and,
    based on latest water vapor imagery, forcing for ascent with one is
    beginning to impact the Sangre de Cristo Mountains into Front Range
    vicinity. Thunderstorms have already initiated near and north
    through southwest of the Raton Mesa vicinity, and model output
    indicates an increase in thunderstorm development is likely through

    This probably will remain largely focused close to the higher
    terrain, where moistening on southeasterly near surface flow is
    generally ongoing. With further insolation and steepening of
    lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates, it appears that mixed-layer CAPE
    will increase in excess of 1000 J/kg, in the presence of
    strengthening deep-layer shear (40-80+ kt in the 500-300 mb layer).=20
    As this occurs, the environment is expected to become increasingly
    conducive to supercells capable of producing large, potentially
    damaging hail. There may be some risk for a brief tornado, but
    model forecast soundings suggest substantive enlargement of
    low-level hodographs may not occur until much later this afternoon
    or early evening.

    ..Kerr/Guyer.. 05/22/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sty57AKpVIKrevSdXzXOfJqjwFupvBQs8tL3HuEs7ftZYB7foumAj9-Z-nDUs6DzwOW6kmvD$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 37440504 38960522 39830489 39970367 40010298 39720266
    38770322 36090399 35130458 34810542 35400577 37440504=20

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