• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0694

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri May 21 02:05:32 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 210205
    SPC MCD 210205=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0694
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0905 PM CDT Thu May 20 2021

    Areas affected...Central Iowa into Southeast Minnesota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 210205Z - 210400Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A low-end threat for a brief tornado exists in association
    with strong low-level shear and MCV moving through central Iowa. The
    threat will be limited by a very poor thermodynamic environment. No
    WW is expected.

    DISCUSSION...The KDMX VAD has shown an increase in low-level winds
    over the past few hours. 0-1 km shear is now near 40 kts as the core
    of the low-level jet has intensified within the region. With an MCV
    moving through the area, a storm or two will be possible into the
    overnight. Given the wind profiles depicted by the VAD, low-level
    rotation and a brief tornado could occur if a storm were to
    intensify. Thermodynamics in this very moist, tropical-like
    environment are quite poor, however, and will limit the overall
    threat. No WW is expected.

    ..Wendt/Dial.. 05/21/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ogUNAMOL4lBP-gOvUniOTHvCv6M0oegd8gwaZGUk6Y2O_q10iRT9_wZBLe8YSRah6Xp4J3j4$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 41819451 42889417 43799330 44029194 43779135 43299118
    42029219 41099319 41019403 41339449 41819451=20

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