• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0693

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu May 20 22:28:34 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 202228
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 202227=20
    ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-210030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0693
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0527 PM CDT Thu May 20 2021

    Areas affected...Arklatex and Vicinity

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 202227Z - 210030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A brief and weak tornado may occur with a storm or two,
    should they intensify late this afternoon and early evening. Storm
    organization will be limited as will storm coverage. No WW is
    expected.

    DISCUSSION...A storm within Marion County, TX, has shown weak, but
    persistent, low-level rotation on KSHV radar imagery. This storm has intensified along a diffuse heating boundary where a few cloud
    breaks have allowed temperatures to rise into the mid/upper 70s.
    Furthermore, visible satellite shows a weak mesovortex propagating
    northward along the Sabine River that could contribute to storm
    development. Low-level shear is sufficient for weak rotation and
    perhaps a brief tornado. Deep-layer shear, however, is rather
    marginal as flow aloft is nearly southerly. A narrow window for
    storm development/intensification will exist before the boundary
    layer begins to stabilize this evening. Cloud cover and subsidence
    in the wake of an earlier MCV will limit development to the west
    with precipitation/cooler temperatures similarly limiting areas to
    the east. Marginal thermodynamics and limited storm coverage will
    likely mean no WW will be necessary this evening.

    ..Wendt/Dial.. 05/20/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!q6_nfRNUBR-a9lmpJ_UTJKOJzaLHZuKmCVHznDJgW62ZXajE946zXhhZbLwP95zP8zNHVBLu$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...

    LAT...LON 32779500 34369543 35759515 36219440 35859365 34369340
    33269380 32609396 32459465 32779500=20



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