• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0691

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu May 20 04:34:56 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 200434
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 200434=20
    LAZ000-200600-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0691
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1134 PM CDT Wed May 19 2021

    Areas affected...coastal areas of southwest and south-central
    Louisiana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 200434Z - 200600Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Strong, gusty thunderstorm winds are possible along
    coastal areas of southwest and south-central Louisiana over the next
    few hours. A watch is currently not expected.

    DISCUSSION...A linear mesoscale convective system (MCS) is
    organizing across the northwest Gulf of Mexico and southwest
    Louisiana to the northeast of a remnant mesoscale convective vortex
    (MCV) across the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Recent radar and
    lightning trends have indicated an increase in thunderstorm
    intensity with an associated increase in thunderstorm outflow winds.
    Given that these thunderstorms are associated with an MCV and moving
    into a background environment that is very moist and unstable and
    weakly capped, they should continue to persist overnight as they
    move east.=20

    Low-to-mid-level wind profiles are largely southerly across the
    region per area VADS. Despite resulting in modest effective-layer
    shear, this wind profile will augment thunderstorm outflow winds
    with any northward moving convection. In this scenario, a localized
    wind threat may materialize with the strongest thunderstorm cores.
    Given the orientation of the MCS, this threat would materialized
    mostly along coastal areas of southwest and south-central Louisiana,
    where thunderstorm winds will also be slightly higher owing to less
    surface friction ove the Gulf of Mexico. The threat should remain
    fairly brief/localized and a watch is currently not anticipated.

    ..Marsh/Dial.. 05/20/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tx9GDT3ao_PZz_w7nMxXVlb9Xt-IeveNoZE-WR1qvEUvOwwQXyGpyMybdwf9fuO3dhTOvasJ$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

    LAT...LON 29669321 30109334 30379309 30359199 30279124 29959074
    29409070 29089096 29119164 29289259 29449302 29669321=20



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