• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0690

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu May 20 00:52:28 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 200052
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 200051=20
    MNZ000-200245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0690
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0751 PM CDT Wed May 19 2021

    Areas affected...Southern Minnesota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 200051Z - 200245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Brief, weak tornadoes are possible over the next one to
    two hours across southern Minnesota, but the overall severe threat
    should remain limited.

    DISCUSSION...Velocity data from KMPX shows a few weakly rotating
    thunderstorms across southern MN (as well as one cell with stronger
    rotation and a reported tornado) as they transverse a broad and
    diffuse warm frontal boundary - noted largely by a subtle shift in southeasterly flow along the IA/MN border to more easterly across
    parts of south-central MN. The KMPX VWP shows modest curvature in
    the 0-1 km layer and recent RAP mesosnalysis shows a slowly
    strengthening 850 mb jet across the region, which have been
    sufficient for storm rotation. Overall, the environment features
    only modest instability and weak deep-layer wind shear that will act
    to limit the overall severe weather threat. However, as the
    low-level jet continues to strengthen through the evening hours one
    or two more additional brief, weak tornadoes will be possible as
    cells move through a region of slightly enhanced low-level shear
    along the warm frontal zone.

    ..Moore/Dial.. 05/20/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rrgUYHHyFWOblJ5mC60cZokRlk0X2xljeu6AKyoQ1Ep-98vzSt83PZMDKvFlOSipZg5uUD7U$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...FSD...

    LAT...LON 43579333 43709464 43889534 44559539 44999463 44959361
    44829305 44599261 44099238 43669279 43579333=20



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