• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0689

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed May 19 23:07:26 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 192307
    SPC MCD 192306=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0689
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0606 PM CDT Wed May 19 2021

    Areas affected...West Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 192306Z - 200030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms posing a threat for large hail will persist
    for the next couple of hours before diminishing later this evening.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are ongoing across far west Texas this
    evening posing a risk of large hail. One such thunderstorm is
    currently moving southeast into the greater Midland area and another
    moving northeast into Crockett county. These thunderstorms continue
    within an environment best characterized as weakly capped and
    sufficiently unstable. Deep-layer shear is marginally supportive of thunderstorm organization, with decreasing support farther east.
    Absent strongly deep-layer shear, the intensity of these storms
    should wane with time this evening as the boundary layer cools and
    instability decreases. One potential exception to this will be when
    the westward-moving outflow boundary across Crockett, Irion, and
    Sterling counties interacts with the eastward moving storms
    currently located from Pecos county northward into Midland county.
    Should these storm-scale interactions occur, increased low-level
    convergence may result in a brief increase in updraft strength and
    an increased hail potential. However, the relatively localized space
    and time nature of the threat should preclude the need for a watch.

    ..Marsh/Dial.. 05/19/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rEWI2wg6OfduNy9QytfmekNJKzAg9z0WDJt12APTlB1s2DYl9T0NVhwgE1RmwkvkIUeVa8Y_$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 31970267 32330230 32240109 31480046 30600029 30180114
    30310206 31240254 31970267=20

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