• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0687

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed May 19 19:10:55 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 191910
    SPC MCD 191910=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0687
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0210 PM CDT Wed May 19 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of west and west-central TX

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 191910Z - 192145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated threat for severe hail and strong/gusty winds
    may develop this afternoon. Watch issuance is unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...Weak low-level upslope flow is occurring early this
    afternoon across parts of west and west-central TX based on recent
    surface observations and area VWPs. Diurnal heating has been fairly
    muted across this region today given persistent mid/high-level cloud
    cover in the wake of an expansive MCS and precipitation shield now
    over coastal TX and the Gulf of Mexico. Still, surface dewpoints
    generally in the low to mid 60s, coupled with steep mid-level lapse
    rates noted on the 12Z MAF sounding, will likely support around
    1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE in a fairly narrow corridor through the
    remainder of the afternoon. Modest large-scale ascent associated
    with a weakening upper trough over the southern High Plains should
    encourage at least isolated additional storm development as
    convective inhibition weakens with continued diurnal heating. Storms
    may develop over the higher terrain of the Davis/Glass Mountains,
    with other activity possible along a stalled front extending
    southwest to northeast across west TX. Mid-level west-northwesterly
    flow over this region is expected to remain fairly modest, generally
    30-35 kt or less. Even so, there should be enough deep-layer shear
    for some storm organization, with marginal supercells and small
    clusters possible. Isolated instances of severe hail and
    strong/gusty winds may occur with the more robust cores through the
    rest of the afternoon. The eastward extent of the severe threat
    across west-central TX should remain limited by convective
    overturning from earlier storms. The overall severe threat currently
    appears marginal/isolated, and watch issuance is unlikely.

    ..Gleason/Kerr.. 05/19/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uqQ_SRWtJ0IMVZ_f9FI_e4wwI-WNbLtuEFwkgv_Ld-tNi6EMpYIJLbqIa_62Ko1yBJjt3hgD$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 30380333 31420348 32240254 32500058 32469945 32109916
    31479903 30089979 29200084 29580138 29720187 29730229
    29640273 30070323 30380333=20

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