• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0686

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed May 19 13:47:22 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 191347
    SPC MCD 191346=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0686
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0846 AM CDT Wed May 19 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of deep south TX

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 191...

    Valid 191346Z - 191515Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 191

    SUMMARY...Damaging winds should remain the primary threat with a
    line of storms moving eastward this morning.

    DISCUSSION...A small, organized bow is present across parts of deep
    south TX this morning, moving eastward around 35-40 kt. Based on its
    current speed, this line of storms should approach the coast within
    the next 1 to 1.5 hours (by 15Z/10 AM CDT). A very deep, moist
    low-level airmass was observed on the 12Z BRO sounding, with a mean
    mixing ratio of 19.1 g/kg. The presence of modestly steepened
    mid-level lapse rates across this region is also contributing to
    MLCAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg downstream of the ongoing convection. The
    mid-level flow downstream from an upper low centered over the
    southern/central High Plains is not overly strong this morning, but
    around 30-35 kt of effective bulk shear should be enough to support
    continued storm organization. Given the linear nature of the ongoing
    convection and rather favorable thermodynamic environment, damaging
    wind gusts will likely be the primary severe threat. Around 100
    m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH also suggests that a brief QLCS tornado embedded
    within the line remains a possibility.

    ..Gleason.. 05/19/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ua4MRjKz12l02eY74OhvHfUIrrwD5vYBv9sT6ZARLODdFvxQtHFjG4UqD9dSLiiBNCOQ1Q7o$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 26219855 26799825 27369855 27399773 27239728 26879730
    26469717 25999710 25889753 26029782 25999803 26089840

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