• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0683

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed May 19 04:01:20 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 190401
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 190400=20
    TXZ000-190530-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0683
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1100 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

    Areas affected...South TX

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 190400Z - 190530Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Convection developing near Laredo may develop into a
    supercell or two, posing a severe threat into the early morning
    hours.

    DISCUSSION...At 0345Z, convection is gradually increasing in
    coverage in and near Webb County TX, though storms thus far have
    remained subsevere. The environment near and south of a nearly
    stationary surface boundary remains conditionally favorable for
    severe thunderstorms, with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and effective
    shear of 30-40 kt. While large-scale forcing is generally nebulous
    across the region, moderately enhanced low-level southeasterly flow
    may favor an increase in storm coverage near and north of the
    boundary at some point late tonight into the early morning.=20

    In the short term, a supercell or two may evolve out of ongoing
    convection, posing a risk of large hail and perhaps localized strong
    wind gusts. The potentially limited coverage of any such threat
    makes the immediate need for watch issuance uncertain. A more
    substantial increase in convection is forecast by several CAMs later
    in the overnight period, though uncertainty remains as to when this
    would occur.

    ..Dean/Grams.. 05/19/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oqYPq_nTrv7IiAlS3jhH6c0yXOPUgJLkwCNnAfBBz6V7vLiaeBVJX0g9v5XzQhFZnuxP2xu5$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

    LAT...LON 28450028 28539897 28539877 28129860 27149823 26779854
    26629916 26819946 27479993 27960014 28450028=20



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