• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0682

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed May 19 03:40:23 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 190340
    SPC MCD 190339=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0682
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1039 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

    Areas affected...Far southeast TX into southwest LA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 190339Z - 190515Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...While an upstream MCS over southeast TX is expected to
    gradually weaken as it approaches southwest LA, the threat for
    isolated damaging wind gusts may persist into the early morning
    hours. Watch issuance is not currently anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...At 0330Z, an MCS is moving across southeast TX. As the
    MCS moves eastward into southwest LA, it will encounter a less
    unstable and more strongly capped (for surface-based parcels)
    environment, with the more moist/unstable airmass expected to remain
    near the immediate coast and offshore, to the south of a nearly
    stationary surface boundary. As a result, a gradual weakening trend
    is expected with time. While isolated damaging wind gusts may remain
    possible into the early morning hours, the threat is expected to
    become increasingly marginal, so additional watch issuance is

    ..Dean/Grams.. 05/19/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pdy1vX7MnelP-10SMt_y6ixZRPqiV8fakbqTi8Mwiv-yDndkqinJ4AWWRCRdrONbH2soA4C3$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 30939455 31169339 31199239 30719171 30029138 29419158
    29419236 29379335 29369397 29909431 30939455=20

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