Mesoscale Discussion 0681
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0854 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021
Areas affected...Southeast TX
Concerning...Tornado Watch 188...190...
Valid 190154Z - 190330Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 188, 190 continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind and a tornado or two will
continue as an ongoing MCS moves eastward tonight.
DISCUSSION...Convection across southeast TX has consolidated into an eastward-propagating MCS. Favorable instability (MLCAPE of 1500-2000
J/kg) and sufficient effective shear (30-40 kt) will continue to
favor some organization as the system progresses across southeast
TX. Locally damaging wind will be possible, especially near the
bowing portion of the line as it approaches the Houston area between
02-03Z. The KHGX VWP continues to show moderately strong low-level southeasterly flow with some veering with height, which will support
transient supercell structures capable of a tornado or two, and
perhaps some hail.
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