• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0680

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed May 19 01:01:19 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 190101
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 190100=20
    LAZ000-TXZ000-190200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0680
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0800 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

    Areas affected...The Arklatex region

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 189...

    Valid 190100Z - 190200Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 189
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe threat continues to decline for most of WW 189,
    but an isolated wind/hail threat remains possible for parts of the
    Arklatex region through the late evening hours.

    DISCUSSION...Lightning and IR trends continue to show a gradual
    weakening of the QLCS across central AR, and sub-severe winds
    recently reported with the line further support this idea. Diurnal
    cooling will continue to diminish MLCAPE through the late evening
    hours across much of AR, which will further act to mitigate the
    severe potential across much of WW 189. Further south across the
    Arklatex region, around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE along with 25-35 knots of
    effective bulk shear are noted in RAP mesoanalysis ahead of a
    cluster of storms emerging out of central TX. While this cluster has
    largely exhibited only loose organization, it is forecast to
    propagate into parts of the Arklatex area over the next 1-2 hours.
    Although confidence is low, isolated instances of severe wind/hail
    will remain possible given the environment.

    ..Moore.. 05/19/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sQRdRPuZ2MsFZJHLTOWa3KIWgE_M5p3BRpiWqo4re_xT0OPofI03S4fh66jUceZL94_OhX8-$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...

    LAT...LON 32259559 32669540 32969487 32999432 32689393 32289391
    31909383 31409424 31329493 31679539 32259559=20



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