• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0679

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 18 23:13:52 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 182313
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 182313=20
    TXZ000-190045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0679
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0613 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of central into eastern TX

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 188...

    Valid 182313Z - 190045Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 188 continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe threat will continue into this evening, with a
    primary threat of locally damaging wind, though isolated hail and a
    tornado or two remain possible.

    DISCUSSION...At 23Z, extensive convection is ongoing from central
    into eastern TX, generally near and north of an outflow-reinforced
    surface boundary that is expected to continue sagging slowly
    southward this evening. The primary threat is likely to be locally
    damaging wind, as continued cell mergers and outflow consolidation
    may support small bowing clusters within the larger convective
    plume. Transient supercell structures remain possible though, with
    convective elements within the warm sector deepening as they
    approach the surface boundary. Any such supercells would pose some
    risk of hail, and perhaps a brief tornado as they interact with the boundary.=20

    With some increase in the low-level jet expected later this evening,
    a more extensive MCS may develop and begin propagating eastward,
    with a continued threat of locally damaging wind and perhaps a
    tornado or two.

    ..Dean.. 05/18/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vtwpnpLvfQarQq0Z7WKiPQhy0M_MpJn4U4AP9ffFIKdOeIp1JKgYvd-NFn-DuebP72HuFf4g$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

    LAT...LON 29019851 29759739 30749699 31809645 31579519 30779516
    29479626 29059669 28789715 28719753 28779838 29019851=20



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