• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0678

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 18 23:07:49 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 182307
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 182307=20
    TXZ000-190100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0678
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0607 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

    Areas affected...The Texas Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 182307Z - 190100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind/hail will remain possible through the
    late evening hours for portions of the Texas Panhandle as a line of
    storms continues to move to the east.

    DISCUSSION...Latest base reflectivity and velocity data from the TX
    Panhandle show that an initial cluster of storms has now
    consolidated into a semi-organized line. Relatively weak and
    meridional flow over the region is limiting the overall severe
    threat with this line as it slowly moves east via cold pool
    propagation (as hinted by outflow boundaries noted west of KAMA).
    While a robust MCS does not appear likely given weak bulk shear,
    favorable low-level lapse rates near 8 C/km and sufficient
    instability will continue to support a threat for isolated wind and
    hail through at least sunset. Further south, a lone supercell will
    likely persist for the next hour or two as it continues to move into
    a more unstable air mass, and will pose primarily a wind and large
    hail threat. Recent guidance suggests additional convection may
    develop along a residual outflow boundary later tonight across parts
    of west/northwest TX, but confidence in this scenario is somewhat
    low. Regardless, the modest flow over the region suggests that a
    more robust/widespread severe threat is unlikely, so a watch is not anticipated.

    ..Moore/Grams.. 05/18/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uNv6zCEXG-e5i_IbuuUwn0WD4_BKUMorB6Rg6MJI5Cgut-JOzhrvfLHQtkjSKQXTwUpmoN-8$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...

    LAT...LON 33640295 34470260 35180236 35670228 35920149 35800085
    35360070 34700063 34010073 32720111 32580193 33280292
    33640295=20



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