• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0677

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 18 22:40:19 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 182240
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 182239=20
    ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-190045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0677
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0539 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

    Areas affected...Western Arkansas and the Arklatex region

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 189...

    Valid 182239Z - 190045Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 189
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Sporadic damaging winds remain possible in the near term,
    but a gradual weakening trend appears likely heading through the
    remainder of the evening hours.

    DISCUSSION...An organized line of storms continue to propagate east/northeastward across western AR and the Arklatex region. A
    handful of wind damage reports have been noted along the leading
    edge of the QLCS, and recent GOES IR imagery shows a few strong
    updrafts persist within the line, suggesting damaging winds remain
    likely in the near term (roughly over the next hour or so). However,
    composite reflectivity and lightning trends over the past hour hint
    at a gradual weakening trend as the line of storms moves further
    into AR where deep-layer shear is less favorable for organized
    convection. Sufficient instability with minimal inhibition across
    central and southern AR should allow for additional convective
    development as this line continues east, and this may pose an
    isolated wind/hail threat with any stronger updrafts. But the lack
    of more robust deep-layer flow will likely limit the potential for a
    more organized severe threat. Trends will be monitored, but a
    downstream watch is currently not anticipated.

    ..Moore.. 05/18/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!r1rANv9-w75icsCHSj22izV_WuRmkaWAskmx19Bo7sAvrYY0rJ6dguOyiubb45cQf8-LW6hZ$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...

    LAT...LON 32599514 33239471 33889429 34629428 34979468 35329494
    35509475 35699397 35739286 35379233 34729221 34159255
    33609288 33099339 32689387 32369417 32409482 32599514=20



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