• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0676

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 18 22:11:25 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 182211
    SPC MCD 182210=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0676
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0510 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

    Areas affected...South TX

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 182210Z - 182345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A couple of supercells will be possible into early
    evening, with a conditional risk of all hazards. Watch issuance is
    possible soon.

    DISCUSSION...At 22Z, convection is trying to deepen along a surface
    boundary across Dimmit and Frio Counties, while a mature supercell
    is noted across the international border south of Del Rio. MLCAPE of
    2000-3000 J/kg and effective shear of 30-40 kt will favor a
    supercell risk with any convection that can become sustained along
    the boundary, though very dry midlevel air noted on WV imagery and a
    tendency for the boundary to undercut developing cells as it sags
    southward make it uncertain as to whether convection can mature.=20

    If mature supercells can be sustained along the boundary, then the
    environment would pose a conditional threat of all hazards. Watch
    issuance is possible to cover this threat.

    ..Dean/Grams.. 05/18/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tl2bjedNrCh0E3pwKSn0mZCrRQbRH7su2R-P3f_P06vKxVrlh8ByEmCYExGHhv4OT_eoe3TO$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 28340030 28459956 28799880 28589838 28289832 27859857
    27639886 27549916 27489950 27539983 27609999 28340030=20

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