• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0675

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 18 21:17:50 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 182117
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 182117=20
    ALZ000-MSZ000-182315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0675
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0417 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of central...southern and eastern
    Mississippi into extreme western Alabama

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 182117Z - 182315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A couple brief tornadoes remain possible with the stronger
    storms in close proximity to and ahead of the MCV. Given the sparse,
    brief nature of the tornado threat, a WW issuance is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Semi-discrete, low topped supercells have developed
    immediately ahead of an eastward propagating MCV over the past
    couple of hours, with at least two brief tornadoes reported. These
    storms are organizing in an environment characterized by modest
    0-3km CAPE (100+ J/kg) and low-level vertically oriented voriticity,
    but weak effective SRH (mainly under 100 m2/s2). The low-level CAPE
    in place will allow for sufficient stretching of the vertical
    vorticity to support the potential for a couple more
    supercell/landspout hybrid tornadoes for at least a few more hours,
    until boundary-layer cooling after peak afternoon heating gradually
    erodes the severe threat. Given the sparse and brief nature of the
    tornado threat, a WW issuance is not expected.

    ..Squitieri/Grams.. 05/18/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qIqTCeszcTcdRzfL3n-W1etFng0Ak-nNNQrRUancrvVDQXhroUjW-jJcxiYS0geVh7El1NfX$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

    LAT...LON 31038992 31519030 32149022 32638984 33178938 33338892
    33288866 33048839 32858822 32458807 31978801 31538798
    31248809 31018854 31038992=20



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