• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0674

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 18 20:53:20 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 182053
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 182052=20
    TXZ000-182215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0674
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0352 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of south-central TX

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 188...

    Valid 182052Z - 182215Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 188 continues.

    SUMMARY...The greatest near-term severe threat across Tornado Watch
    188 should focus east of San Antonio and south of Austin.

    DISCUSSION...A supercell anchored along a surface boundary and
    embedded within a small cluster has recently produced 1.25 inch hail
    to the northeast of San Antonio and a 67 mph wind gust at the New
    Braunfels airport (KBAZ). Strong low-level velocities have also been
    noted from the KEWX radar with this storm. The environment
    downstream of this activity should remain favorable for severe
    storms, with MLCAPE generally ranging from 1500-2000 J/kg and 35-40
    kt of effective bulk shear present across south-central TX. Both
    large hail and damaging wind gusts should remain the primary severe
    threat for the next hour or two. Other convection is attempting to
    strengthen to the south of the ongoing cluster in a modest low-level
    warm advection regime. These storms may also become severe if they
    strengthen further. Although the east-southeasterly low-level flow
    to the south of the boundary is not overly strong per recent
    mesoanalysis estimates, it may be strong enough to support an
    isolated tornado, especially with any storm that can remain anchored
    to the remnant outflow boundary.

    ..Gleason.. 05/18/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sfxGYz4wxzVwghSXttuMANmZM4LYYOcOf9Z6Ad7kYs-0QD-A65Obts3rxM9MVtG-TTtWPW32$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...HGX...EWX...

    LAT...LON 29709807 30089808 30169761 30139670 29749644 29319652
    29149674 29229788 29709807=20



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