• Indian-N: Tauktae W015 Fi

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Tue May 18 16:00:00 2021
    WTIO31 PGTW 172100
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 015//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 015
    01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
    WARNING POSITION:
    171800Z --- NEAR 20.8N 71.3E
    MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
    POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
    POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
    PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 71.3E
    ---
    FORECASTS:
    12 HRS, VALID AT:
    180600Z --- 22.5N 71.6E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
    24 HRS, VALID AT:
    181800Z --- 24.4N 72.5E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
    36 HRS, VALID AT:
    190600Z --- 26.2N 73.9E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
    REMARKS:
    172100Z POSITION NEAR 21.2N 71.4E.
    17MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
    140 NM NORTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
    08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
    SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 01A HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
    JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL, WITH A 20NM EYE FEATURE, SURROUNDED BY A
    SOLID RING OF COLD CLOUD TOPS IN THE BD ENHANCEMENT. THE SYSTEM WAS
    IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING THE SHORELINE AT THE 171800Z HOUR, VERY
    NEAR TO JAFARABAD, INDIA. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS PLACED WITH HIGH
    CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 20NM EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP. THE
    INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 110 KTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE,
    REFLECTING THE IMPROVED INFRARED SIGNATURE, COLDER CLOUD TOPS AND
    WARMER EYE TEMPERATURE. MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
    ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KTS) FROM PGTW, T5.5 (102 KTS) FROM DEMS, AND
    AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T6.0, LEND ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL
    INTENSITY. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS CONDUCIVE, WITH LOW (10-
    15 KTS) VWS AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. NOW THAT THE SYSTEM IS OVER
    LAND HOWEVER, IT IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO THE
    COMBINATION OF LAND INTERACTION AND RAPIDLY INCREASING VWS AS IT
    TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD. SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
    IN THE GULF OF KHAMBAHT THROUGH TAU 12 EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM ITSELF
    WILL BE CENTERED WELL INLAND. TC 01A IS FORECAST TO FULLY DISSIPATE
    AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 36 AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE ARAVALLI
    MOUNTAINS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
    TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
    FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z
    IS 38 FEET.//
    NNNN
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