• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0673

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 18 19:30:51 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 181930
    SPC MCD 181930=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0673
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0230 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of northeast TX into southeastern
    OK...southwestern AR...and northwestern LA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 181930Z - 182130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A strong to damaging wind threat may gradually increase
    this afternoon. Isolated severe hail could also occur. Watch
    issuance is possible.

    DISCUSSION...A band of convection has persisted early this afternoon
    from north-central into northeast TX and far southeastern OK. Ascent
    associated with a subtle mid-level vorticity maximum and modest
    low-level warm advection are probably aiding these storms. Gradual destabilization of the boundary layer should continue downstream of
    this activity across the ArkLaTex region through the remainder of
    the afternoon, with the development of MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg
    probable. Mid-level flow is expected to fairly modest across this
    region through the rest of the day (generally 20-30 kt), and the
    lack of stronger effective bulk shear may limit overall storm
    organization and intensity to some extent. Still, the ongoing
    activity should eventually encounter a more unstable airmass with
    eastward extent as convective inhibition continues to weaken this
    afternoon. A small cluster similar to the current radar depiction
    would pose mainly a strong to damaging wind threat, although
    isolated, marginally severe hail may also occur with stronger
    embedded updrafts. Other storms may form along an outflow boundary
    farther south based on recent visible satellite and radar imagery.
    It remains unclear whether any of these storms will strengthen
    enough to justify watch issuance, but observational trends will be
    closely monitored.

    ..Gleason/Guyer.. 05/18/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sxWCYGPRvOkZpBmXxNNkNY-0YGYLRlt9lUhucJruLjgKcIGIIOkVoNYV5HQ4eYQ90BX2y0yw$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 33479568 34109572 34659499 34669419 34519346 34209303
    33559304 33009323 32489365 31919447 31839484 31859536
    32339532 32609543 33079555 33479568=20

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