• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0672

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 18 18:57:51 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 181857
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 181857=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-182130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0672
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0157 PM CDT Tue May 18 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of east central New Mexico into the Texas
    Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 181857Z - 182130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Slowly intensifying storms are possible near and southwest
    through south of the Amarillo, TX vicinity through 3-5 PM CDT. Some
    of these may be accompanied by severe hail, and perhaps potential
    for a relatively short-lived and weak tornado or two.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have initiated along a low-level
    confluence zone, south-southwest through northwest of Clovis, NM.=20
    This appears where mixed-layer CAPE has become maximized (1000+
    J/kg) in response to daytime heating, beneath the leading edge of an
    elongated cold core (500 mb temps -16 to -18C) associated with the
    remnants of a mid-level low emerging from the Southwest. This also
    appears south-southwest of a convective outflow boundary associated
    with a small cluster of thunderstorms now spreading across and north
    of the Interstate 40 corridor of the western Texas Panhandle
    vicinity.

    With continuing insolation, and strengthening differential surface
    heating across it, the outflow boundary may become a focus for
    enhanced low-level shear and forcing for ascent, providing a
    possible focus for stronger thunderstorm development by late
    afternoon. Lower/mid tropospheric wind fields and shear are
    otherwise generally modest to weak, but it is possible that
    southwesterly flow up to 30 kt, near/above the 500 mb level, could
    contribute to sufficient vertical shear for supercell structures
    along the boundary.

    As a zone of enhanced mid-level forcing for ascent continues
    gradually pivoting around the eastern periphery of the mid-level low
    through 20-22Z, storms over eastern New Mexico may continue to
    increase and intensify while spreading into the Texas Panhandle,
    with additional storms also initiating along the outflow boundary.=20
    A few of these storms may eventually pose a risk for severe hail,
    with perhaps some developing potential for generally
    weak/short-lived tornadoes.

    ..Kerr/Guyer.. 05/18/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tnIneRhcNgHARzdGAQsDwSu2tj_z4iAzffcHzO-ykpmz4YDCsImgn9IwELJID5fieRR4eExW$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 33950270 33460314 33730353 34560328 35100292 35130253
    35320191 34420172 33950270=20



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