• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0669

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 18 08:11:16 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 180811
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 180810=20
    LAZ000-MSZ000-180945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0669
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0310 AM CDT Tue May 18 2021

    Areas affected...portions of southeast LA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 180810Z - 180945Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A brief, weak tornado is possible across parts of
    southeast Louisiana early this morning.

    DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms across southeast LA have
    shown transient, weak rotation the past hour or so. Overall, this
    activity is occurring in weak instability and modest shear. However,
    low level southeasterly winds around 20-30 kt are resulting in
    modest low level hodograph curvature. Furthermore, surface dewpoints
    near 70 F are aiding in moderate low level instability with a
    corridor of 0-3 km MLCAPE around 100-125 J/kg evident in latest
    mesoanalysis. Poor low level lapse rates and overall marginal
    larger-scale environment will limit longevity/intensity of organized
    cells. However, the moist/unstable low levels amid somewhat
    favorable low level shear could result in a brief/weak tornado. The
    overall threat is expected to remain limited, and a watch is not
    expected at this time.

    ..Leitman/Hart.. 05/18/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vuyYPZmCq2DH5Vy2hNWfk0luaZyvlDknY5-Gp_flUb0sBogiTZ6upABcIdI8pbO8I_y6DLFw$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LIX...

    LAT...LON 29649079 30299049 30569011 30608983 30438948 29898952
    29258972 28909014 28789071 28869106 29119114 29649079=20



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