• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0668

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 18 06:30:46 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 180630
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 180629=20
    TXZ000-180800-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0668
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0129 AM CDT Tue May 18 2021

    Areas affected...portions of southwest TX

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 187...

    Valid 180629Z - 180800Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 187
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop over
    western portions of WW 187 over the next hour or two. Large hail
    will be the main threat, but locally damaging gusts also could
    occur.

    DISCUSSION...A deepening line of cumulus has been noted in the
    GOES-16 nighttime microphysics product over the past 30 minutes or
    so from just northwest of Ft. Stockton to just south of Midland.
    Most recently, weak midlevel reflectivity cores have become evident
    in regional radar as well. This activity is developing to the east
    of a dryline in moist upslope low level flow and to the south of an
    outflow boundary. Strong instability, with MLCAPE values from
    1500-3500 J/kg are in place, and very steep midlevel lapse rates
    greater than 8 C/km remain over the region amid effective shear
    greater than 40 kt and a 30+ kt southerly low level jet. This should
    support organized, somewhat elevated supercells. Large hail and
    locally strong gusts could accompany these cells.

    ..Leitman.. 05/18/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uQPcRXQI1GSDqeH99udQNcQ3-_X8kmtGGHOB33ws1R7CUEcYdGxFDI_t4QcOWCtLWBqJRsDs$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

    LAT...LON 32059994 31359942 30470014 30310186 30530291 31270297
    31940284 32320190 32400120 32350075 32100006 32059994=20



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