• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0667

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 18 06:03:21 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 180603
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 180602=20
    TXZ000-180700-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0667
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0102 AM CDT Tue May 18 2021

    Areas affected...portions of south Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 180602Z - 180700Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Locally intense winds could accompany a bowing segment
    tracking eastward across south TX over the next hour or two.

    DISCUSSION...An intense bow is currently tracking eastward across
    Duval, Jim Hogg and Brooks counties in south TX. This feature
    produced near-severe wind gusts near Laredo about 60-75 minutes ago
    and has since remained over mainly rural areas. While low level
    inhibition is present and may limit the overall severe threat, the
    latest VWP from BRO indicates a 40-50 kt south/southeasterly low
    level jet is oriented over the region. Strong instability is still
    in place, with latest mesoanalysis indicating 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE
    amid steep midlevel lapse rates. In conjunction with the low level
    jet, this should maintain organization of the bowing feature in the
    short term, and a couple of locally intense winds could reach the
    surface despite weak to moderate inhibition. Given the small spatial
    and temporal nature of the threat, a watch is not expected at this
    time.

    ..Leitman/Hart.. 05/18/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oVzphvOhzZV8ArWzYtrHha64e1No1kB5m2TrgeqWmaQU3e7a-pAKa8jhOTBiWkO_2UfK8Bet$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...

    LAT...LON 26819845 26979882 27299883 27689878 27789845 27699802
    27509780 27329776 27079777 26919782 26819845=20



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