• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0666

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 18 04:38:45 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 180438
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 180437=20
    TXZ000-180600-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0666
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1137 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of North TX

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 186...

    Valid 180437Z - 180600Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 186
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for at least isolated damaging wind will
    persist through at least 06Z, and possibly beyond.

    DISCUSSION...At 0430Z, an MCS is continuing to move eastward across
    north TX. The southern portion of the MCS, to the southwest of the
    Metroplex, has shown signs of increasing organization, with a
    well-defined 50-60 kt rear-inflow jet noted between 2-5 km on the
    KDYX VWP. While this would suggest an increasing damaging wind risk,
    other competing factors may mitigate the threat, such as increasing
    MLCINH across the region and the primary outflow tending to surge
    ahead of the leading convection.=20

    Some damaging wind risk is expected to persist until the 06Z
    expiration time of WW 186, with some potential for the threat to
    last beyond that time and extend east of the current watch.
    Depending on convective trends over the next hour, watch
    extension/expansion may be needed prior to 06Z.

    ..Dean.. 05/18/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vZDRcENEfJj9LtnHj3gEvegQvbInNdNz-f0u27eYgJmoWvk6fi3O-dwfXjqXxM3OMmtie1xA$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

    LAT...LON 31779942 32419889 33219831 33659787 33639738 33269707
    32479687 31949726 31639790 31559859 31609927 31779942=20



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