• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0665

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 18 03:36:53 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 180336
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 180335=20
    TXZ000-180500-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0665
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1035 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

    Areas affected...Southwest TX

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

    Valid 180335Z - 180500Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...Redevelopment of severe thunderstorms is possible later
    tonight. Severe thunderstorm watch issuance is likely by 04Z.

    DISCUSSION...As a low-level jet becomes focused into southwest TX
    late tonight, redevelopment of strong thunderstorms is expected. The
    renewed convection will likely be somewhat elevated, but very
    favorable buoyancy and shear will favor a threat of very large hail
    with initial development, with some upscale growth potentially
    leading to a greater damaging wind risk late tonight. A tornado
    cannot be ruled with any supercell that can become surface based,
    though any such threat is highly conditional. A severe thunderstorm
    watch will be issued prior to 04Z to cover the overnight severe
    threat.

    ..Dean/Grams.. 05/18/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tS7mV2H6PHG8nm60nu9XqqdTysaiLROyWoWlKrwGC55U2vh6RUj_QnGqgGTQlx5h1nXfgdm2$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

    LAT...LON 29660332 31150305 31590288 32130278 33010216 32710125
    31770067 31270054 30960047 30390058 30120089 29850115
    29810157 29600294 29660332=20



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