• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0664

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 18 03:24:12 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 180324
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 180323=20
    TXZ000-OKZ000-180500-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0664
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1023 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

    Areas affected...North TX into the TX Big Country

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 185...

    Valid 180323Z - 180500Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 185 continues.

    SUMMARY...A threat for severe wind and hail will persist into late
    tonight with the ongoing thunderstorm cluster, especially for the
    southern portion of the cluster into the TX Big Country.

    DISCUSSION...At 0315Z, a loosely organized MCS is ongoing from
    north-central TX into the TX Big Country. The northern portion of
    the MCS is struggling to maintain intensity, as it moves into an
    environment characterized by increasing MLCINH. However, some threat
    for strong wind gusts, and perhaps some hail with the stronger
    cores, will persist for at least a couple more hours in that region.

    Further south into the TX Big Country, where MLCINH is somewhat
    weaker and favorable buoyancy/shear remains in place, a greater
    severe threat will likely persist for a few hours this evening. The
    primary threat in this region will likely be damaging wind given the increasingly linear structure and expansive outflow, though some
    hail threat will persist with the stronger cores, especially toward
    the southwest edge of the cluster. Since the threat will persist
    past the 04Z expiration time of WW 185, a new severe thunderstorm
    watch will likely be issued for the TX Big Country within the hour.

    ..Dean/Grams.. 05/18/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!um-ED-9RC-U1QC2OR2E0ItKKZ2OHEbFDjDtNdqN5M2eENViRIq5FG2QuD2cbotAcGEFNuulG$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

    LAT...LON 31920056 32769940 33679872 34019877 34029805 33909769
    33279752 32349763 31919782 31559845 31479914 31379987
    31580050 31820075 31920056=20



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