Mesoscale Discussion 0663
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0944 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021
Areas affected...Portions of the TX Panhandle into the TX South
Concerning...Tornado Watch 182...183...
Valid 180244Z - 180415Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 182, 183 continues.
SUMMARY...The severe threat continues with ongoing convection,
though a gradual decreasing trend is expected through 04Z. Some
redevelopment is possible later tonight.
DISCUSSION...At 0230Z, pockets of strong convection are ongoing
across southern portions of the TX Panhandle into the TX South
Plains, though a general decreasing trend has been noted over the
past hour. Increasing MLCINH should result in a continued gradual
weakening trend with time, though some instances of large hail and
strong wind gusts will continue to be possible with the remaining
convection, given the still-favorable buoyancy and midlevel lapse
Later tonight, redevelopment of strong convection may impact at
least southern portions of the MCD area, as a low-level jet becomes
focused into southwest TX. The late-night activity may pose a
hail/wind risk, but any such threat would likely not develop until
closer to 06Z or later.
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