• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0663

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 18 02:45:20 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 180245
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 180244=20
    TXZ000-180415-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0663
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0944 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of the TX Panhandle into the TX South
    Plains

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 182...183...

    Valid 180244Z - 180415Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 182, 183 continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe threat continues with ongoing convection,
    though a gradual decreasing trend is expected through 04Z. Some
    redevelopment is possible later tonight.

    DISCUSSION...At 0230Z, pockets of strong convection are ongoing
    across southern portions of the TX Panhandle into the TX South
    Plains, though a general decreasing trend has been noted over the
    past hour. Increasing MLCINH should result in a continued gradual
    weakening trend with time, though some instances of large hail and
    strong wind gusts will continue to be possible with the remaining
    convection, given the still-favorable buoyancy and midlevel lapse
    rates.=20

    Later tonight, redevelopment of strong convection may impact at
    least southern portions of the MCD area, as a low-level jet becomes
    focused into southwest TX. The late-night activity may pose a
    hail/wind risk, but any such threat would likely not develop until
    closer to 06Z or later.

    ..Dean.. 05/18/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!r2rBVBEhSfTnNclQes5U0lV9hfQ8dlVvnPz6nlqW6X3L_j4lG_4Avhy4oCZn1tUzDPIQzuVk$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

    LAT...LON 32810178 34240191 35050169 35240057 35060021 34239986
    33429985 32910017 32580060 32470082 32430132 32520175
    32810178=20



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