• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0662

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 18 02:28:51 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 180228
    SPC MCD 180228=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0662
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0928 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

    Areas affected...Southeast Colorado...southwest Kansas...and the
    OK/TX Panhandles

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 181...

    Valid 180228Z - 180430Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 181

    SUMMARY...The severe wind and hail potential will continue across
    the TX and OK Panhandles for the next 1-2 hours, but a gradual
    weakening trend is expected across WW 181.

    DISCUSSION...A line of storms continues to propagate east/northeast
    across southeast CO into southwest KS and across the OK/TX
    Panhandles. This line has produced a handful of measured severe wind
    gusts in the past hour, and MRMS vertically integrated ice trends
    show a few stronger updrafts capable of severe hail in the near
    term. However, composite reflectivity and lightning trends over the
    past hour have shown a gradual weakening of the line as it moves
    across southeast CO where deep-layer shear and MLCAPE are
    diminishing. While sporadic damaging winds and isolated hail remain
    possible in the near term, this weakening trend should continue.=20

    Further to the south across the OK/TX Panhandles, instability and
    deep-layer shear remain favorable for maintaining the evolving QLCS
    for the next 1-2 hours. Increasing inhibition and waning instability
    will likely lead to a gradual weakening trend as the line approaches
    western OK, but severe wind and a few instances of severe hail
    remain likely in the near term. Trends will continue to be
    monitored, but a downstream watch is currently not anticipated.

    ..Moore.. 05/18/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oHuYO9HGwvkOyKlFyOjY6IKgCQKx3M4aqgjC8jHX6XKzvx3Rp5wRPaIxk6K-mt5vLLPAMaxv$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 37710400 38330403 38730305 38550185 37910098 36899986
    36179962 35359964 34899988 34730035 34770103 35150160
    36340241 37070309 37710400=20

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