• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0661

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 18 01:34:49 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 180134
    SPC MCD 180134=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0661
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0834 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

    Areas affected...South Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 184...

    Valid 180134Z - 180330Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 184

    SUMMARY...The severe threat associated with a strong supercell
    continues across south Texas, and additional development is possible
    in the next 1-2 hours.

    DISCUSSION...Regional radar and GOES IR trends over the past hour
    continue to show a pair of robust supercells on either side of the
    Rio Grande exhibiting strong rightward deviant motion as they move
    to the south along the river. The environment in the vicinity of the
    U.S. supercell remains supportive for organized convection with
    nearly 4000 J/kg MLCAPE and nearly 50 knots of effective bulk shear.
    An increase in MLCIN may hinder storm intensity to some degree over
    the next hour, but the general expectation is for this storm to
    persist into the late evening hours as it moves into southern
    portions of WW 184 towards Laredo, TX. To the north, new convection
    is developing along a confluence axis and may intensify over the
    next one to two hours. There is some uncertainty regarding the
    intensity and coverage of this new convection given increasing
    inhibition and somewhat weak forcing for ascent, but the general
    environment will remain supportive for a conditional severe threat
    through 11 PM CDT.

    ..Moore.. 05/18/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tS1itPx-qSFv3CkqeI2tGi3NDlKvgermQT52d-yfoFfc0Vlgh83AG5tYS-aWev_yxldSUGpG$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 29010083 29200013 29129897 28809828 28339814 27809860
    27299909 27259957 27609998 28130046 28680086 29010083=20

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