• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0660

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 18 00:38:12 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 180038
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 180037=20
    TXZ000-180200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0660
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0737 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

    Areas affected...Northwest TX into TX South Plains and vicinity

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 182...183...185...

    Valid 180037Z - 180200Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 182, 183, 185 continues.

    SUMMARY...Threat for very large hail and a few tornadoes continues
    this evening, with an increasing threat of damaging wind with time.

    DISCUSSION...At 0030Z, intense supercells are ongoing across
    portions of northwest TX, and also southwestward into portions of
    the TX South Plains. An intense supercell has recently produced a
    potentially significant tornado across northern Sterling County,
    based on the strong velocity signature noted on radar. Localized
    backing of the surface winds is noted near the Sterling County
    cluster of supercells, which is likely enhancing low-level shear/SRH
    and aiding in tornado potential, in addition to the ongoing threat
    of very large hail. MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, effective shear of
    40-50 kt, and very steep midlevel lapse rates (as noted in 00Z DRT
    sounding) will continue to support intense supercell structures this evening.=20

    Given the clustering noted in this area, upscale growth is possible
    within the next 1-2 hours, which would result in an increasing
    threat of damaging wind gusts with time tonight.

    ..Dean.. 05/18/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qVkrS26nvM6VY-pGDksrrWYW-38VrT2r2TpMsperTPCAj85wajLydZJl2YWQQpdzWQXT7aTl$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

    LAT...LON 32190183 32560082 32929998 32889930 31859923 31529988
    31510080 31540158 32190183=20



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