• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0659

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 18 00:23:42 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 180023
    SPC MCD 180023=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0659
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0723 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

    Areas affected...Far northeast New Mexico...southeast Colorado...the
    northern Panhandles...and southwest Kansas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 181...

    Valid 180023Z - 180230Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 181

    SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind and hail will continue for WW
    181 for the next few hours. Storms will likely reach southwest
    Kansas by 03 UTC, and trends will be monitored for the need for a
    downstream watch.

    DISCUSSION...Prior discrete to semi-discrete convection across
    northeast NM and the northwestern TX Panhandle continues to grow
    upscale with a cohesive outflow discernible in velocity data from
    regional radars. This activity is expected to continue to propagate
    to the north/northwest into southeast CO, the northern Panhandles,
    and potentially into southwest KS by around 03 UTC. Additionally,
    new convective development is noted ahead of this line, but it is
    unclear if this convection will pose a robust severe threat before
    merging with the approaching line. The environment ahead of this
    evolving line remains supportive for organized convection in the
    near term, though the onset of diurnal cooling may limit instability
    and overall storm intensity to some degree. The greatest severe risk
    will likely remain across the Panhandles region into the overnight
    hours where more persistent discrete storm modes are expected as
    well as a strengthening low-level jet that will help maintain a
    robust hail/wind (and perhaps a brief tornado) threat. A downstream
    watch into southwest Kansas is possible if the line can maintain
    intensity despite a gradual decrease in instability and
    boundary-layer decoupling.

    To the northwest, convection along the CO front range continues
    exhibit gradual consolidation with an outflow boundary slowly
    propagating eastward. This activity will continue to pose an
    isolated severe wind risk for the next 1-2 hours before
    boundary-layer decoupling occurs.

    ..Moore.. 05/18/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pGdjA1iUdXrZ5qBF43zutw7c17KdtVZjQ7cnlEaVz8tJP0W5d8Q9F1eAIDNMyzem0wz2oC1S$=
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    LAT...LON 36770491 37510460 38380364 38560264 38190154 37820086
    37060044 36180001 35500011 35260108 35180264 35360309
    35890335 36360415 36770491=20

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