• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0658

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue May 18 00:04:55 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 180004
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 180004=20
    TXZ000-OKZ000-180130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0658
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0704 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

    Areas affected...North TX...Southwest OK

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 180004Z - 180130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms across northwest TX may merge into an
    eastward-moving cluster this evening, increasing the severe wind
    risk downstream. Watch issuance is likely.

    DISCUSSION...At 00Z, intense supercells are ongoing across northwest
    TX. Storm coverage continues to gradually increase, and will likely
    continue to do so this evening due to cell mergers and gradually
    increasing low-level flow. An eastward-moving cluster is expected to
    eventually develop, though the exact timing remains uncertain.
    MLCINH increases substantially with eastward extent, so storms may
    initially struggle to advance to the east until more of a cold pool
    becomes established with ongoing convection across northwest TX.
    Eventually, a forward-propagating system is expected to move into
    portions of southwest OK and north-central TX, with a primary risk
    of damaging wind, though large hail will also continue to be
    possible with the strongest updrafts. Watch issuance may be needed
    by 01Z to cover this threat.

    ..Dean/Grams.. 05/18/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qXysd7_p419kMtjLfzxtrWxAdsuQgYMJ1jhQ9_Du82D7AdV1TTFNzp5hwMJJyqQr3zwtXQFb$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

    LAT...LON 31539927 33309890 34689915 34519767 33629727 32699716
    31849736 31609783 31489850 31439909 31539927=20



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