Mesoscale Discussion 0658
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0704 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021
Areas affected...North TX...Southwest OK
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20
Valid 180004Z - 180130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Storms across northwest TX may merge into an
eastward-moving cluster this evening, increasing the severe wind
risk downstream. Watch issuance is likely.
DISCUSSION...At 00Z, intense supercells are ongoing across northwest
TX. Storm coverage continues to gradually increase, and will likely
continue to do so this evening due to cell mergers and gradually
increasing low-level flow. An eastward-moving cluster is expected to
eventually develop, though the exact timing remains uncertain.
MLCINH increases substantially with eastward extent, so storms may
initially struggle to advance to the east until more of a cold pool
becomes established with ongoing convection across northwest TX.
Eventually, a forward-propagating system is expected to move into
portions of southwest OK and north-central TX, with a primary risk
of damaging wind, though large hail will also continue to be
possible with the strongest updrafts. Watch issuance may be needed
by 01Z to cover this threat.
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