• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0656

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 17 23:13:46 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 172313
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 172313=20
    TXZ000-180045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0656
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0613 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

    Areas affected...South TX

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 172313Z - 180045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Intense thunderstorm development is possible this evening
    along an outflow boundary. A conditional threat for very large hail,
    locally damaging wind, and a tornado or two will be present with any
    supercell that develops.

    DISCUSSION...At 23Z, convective initiation appears to be underway
    across Dimmit County TX. This development is along a remnant outflow
    boundary, with very hot conditions south of the boundary and very
    warm/moist conditions noted north of the boundary. Extreme
    instability (MLCAPE approaching 4000 J/kg) and sufficient effective
    shear (35-45 kt) would support supercell development with any mature
    convection in the area. Very large hail would be the primary initial
    threat, though a tornado would also be possible, given the presence
    of very large CAPE in the vicinity of the boundary, where low-level
    shear is locally maximized. Watch issuance may be required soon.

    ..Dean/Grams.. 05/17/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ro3_Z8vbM97V79JZ1xhVmg03vRxo1rKO00rNWFsnco1hIWT6QY37Oesa_wS4JrnPVT4A87WC$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

    LAT...LON 28700042 28760006 28689932 28269877 27999875 27499953
    27609968 27759978 27940011 28210034 28570048 28700042=20



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