Mesoscale Discussion 0655
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0536 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021
Areas affected...TX Panhandle into Southwest TX...Far eastern NM
Concerning...Tornado Watch 182...
Valid 172236Z - 180000Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 182 continues.
SUMMARY...Supercells with very large hail will be the primary threat
in the short term, but the tornado and damaging wind threat will
likely increase some into the early evening.
DISCUSSION...Scattered supercells are ongoing at 2230Z from far
east-central NM into southwest TX. With little to no MLCINH
remaining and moderate-to-strong instability in place (MLCAPE of
2000-3000 J/kg), continued storm development and intensification is
expected through 00Z. Very large hail (potentially larger than
baseballs) will the primary short-term threat, given effective shear
of 40-50 kt and very steep midlevel lapse rates (as noted on 18Z AMA
and MAF and 20Z DRT soundings).=20
Low-level flow/shear is expected to increase somewhat into this
evening. As this occurs, the tornado threat may increase with any
remaining discrete supercells. The increasing low-level jet may also
eventually support some upscale growth with time, which would lead
to an increase in the severe wind threat. Isolated significant wind
gusts (65+ kt) cannot be ruled out, especially across the central
and southern portion of WW 182 where greater boundary-layer
heating/mixing has occurred this afternoon.
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