• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0655

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 17 22:37:13 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 172237
    SPC MCD 172236=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0655
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0536 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

    Areas affected...TX Panhandle into Southwest TX...Far eastern NM

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 182...

    Valid 172236Z - 180000Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 182 continues.

    SUMMARY...Supercells with very large hail will be the primary threat
    in the short term, but the tornado and damaging wind threat will
    likely increase some into the early evening.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered supercells are ongoing at 2230Z from far
    east-central NM into southwest TX. With little to no MLCINH
    remaining and moderate-to-strong instability in place (MLCAPE of
    2000-3000 J/kg), continued storm development and intensification is
    expected through 00Z. Very large hail (potentially larger than
    baseballs) will the primary short-term threat, given effective shear
    of 40-50 kt and very steep midlevel lapse rates (as noted on 18Z AMA
    and MAF and 20Z DRT soundings).=20

    Low-level flow/shear is expected to increase somewhat into this
    evening. As this occurs, the tornado threat may increase with any
    remaining discrete supercells. The increasing low-level jet may also
    eventually support some upscale growth with time, which would lead
    to an increase in the severe wind threat. Isolated significant wind
    gusts (65+ kt) cannot be ruled out, especially across the central
    and southern portion of WW 182 where greater boundary-layer
    heating/mixing has occurred this afternoon.

    ..Dean.. 05/17/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!q9WqIKVN1IklhUPoqXgETpvsPS0HGBkTI3Q4r0GrXQeV_lGN2TsnITBkPzCbck5CTe1pH9TF$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 29990251 34590351 35360162 34910073 33930069 32120074
    29969995 29800002 29470074 29580143 29940236 29990251=20

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