• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0654

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 17 22:11:13 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 172211
    SPC MCD 172210=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0654
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0510 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

    Areas affected...Northeast New Mexico...southeast Colorado...and
    portions of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 181...

    Valid 172210Z - 180015Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 181

    SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind and hail will continue in the
    near term, especially across northeast New Mexico into the
    northwestern OK/TX Panhandles. The potential for severe wind may
    increase into the early evening hours.

    DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar and GOES IR trends show a few
    discrete supercells, along with severe semi-discrete clusters,
    developing along the higher terrain of northeast NM/southeast CO and
    along a dryline across far eastern NM and west TX. Sporadic severe
    wind and hail have been reported with this activity with 1 inch hail
    recently noted across eastern NM and a 51 knot convective wind gust
    reported at KLVS in northern NM.=20

    In the near term, the potential for severe wind and hail will
    continue across all of WW 181, though the corridor of highest severe
    potential will likely reside from northeast NM into the
    west/northwestern OK/TX Panhandles region. Across this area, steep
    low-level lapse rates (near 9 C/km) are overlapping with 35-45 knots
    of effective bulk shear as well as near 30 knots of 0-3 km bulk
    shear (noted in regional VWPs), which will continue to support a
    large hail threat and perhaps increase the potential for severe
    winds as discrete/semi-discrete storms gradually grow upscale this

    Further to the north across southeast CO, storm motions have largely
    been slow and along the axis of initiation, and continued upscale
    growth is anticipated for the next few hours. Instances of severe
    hail are possible with any stronger updraft pulses, but weaker
    deep-layer flow amid steep 0-3 km lapse rates suggest a gradual
    eastward progression of a broken line, and and isolated severe wind
    threat, is possible as cold pools begin to consolidate.

    ..Moore.. 05/17/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!u50SHy_UDl6N1rEXKj3sWqvSv3B6785mH8P6WeVMR-tBZU6CtdUiZsbSXURzQFhRGWBq0mIa$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 36030558 36700538 37290517 37740474 38050389 38050302
    37680212 37220135 36740081 36240042 35880045 35700063
    35660115 35610179 35320236 34960288 34620362 34500448
    34750492 35350540 36030558=20

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