• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0653

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 17 21:54:12 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 172154
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 172153=20
    TXZ000-OKZ000-172330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0653
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0453 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

    Areas affected...Northwest TX

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 183...

    Valid 172153Z - 172330Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 183 continues.

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail,
    locally severe wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes will be
    possible into the evening.

    DISCUSSION...At 2145Z, strong thunderstorms have developed along an
    outflow boundary across portions of northwest TX. Relatively strong
    heating on both sides of the boundary has largely removed MLCINH, so
    continued intensification and development is expected into the early
    evening. Moderate-to-strong instability (MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg),
    effective shear of 35-45 kt, and steep midlevel lapse rates will
    support very large hail (potentially baseball-size or larger) with
    the strongest cells. While low-level flow is currently weak, some
    tornado risk may evolve with any supercell interacting with the
    boundary, especially as the low-level jet begins to increase toward
    evening. With generally steep low-level lapse rates across the area,
    isolated severe wind gusts will also be possible. Some upscale
    growth is possible this evening in conjunction with the intensifying
    low-level jet, which would increase the threat of damaging wind with
    time.

    ..Dean.. 05/17/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sebeoYRlCd5XBlrDhLE07uwwU3LN2p7bGVsjAlwRYmGEDlIcg-Erf2qvKiA38-m5tq64IIpI$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

    LAT...LON 32089963 32080031 32080032 32080033 32080051 32080054
    32090067 32250066 32620066 32740066 32960066 34310052
    34750042 34750038 34750012 34750000 34469936 34419926
    34409926 34219895 34209895 32969895 32509910 32089963
    32089963=20



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