• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0652

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 17 19:55:49 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 171955
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 171955=20
    LAZ000-172200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0652
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0255 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

    Areas affected...southwest and south-central Louisiana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 171955Z - 172200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Brief tornadoes will be possible across southwest and
    south-central Louisiana this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...A very moist airmass remains in place across southwest
    and south-central Louisiana this afternoon. Within this environment
    exists a large, slowly eastward moving mesoscale convective system
    (MCS). At the core of this MCS is a mesoscale convective vortex
    (MCV), currently located over Lake Charles. To the south and east of
    this MCV, near-surface wind profiles remain relatively enlarged as
    compared to the surrounding environment, with 0-1 kilometer shear
    values around 30 knots and storm-relative helicity values around 225
    m2/s2 per KLCH VAD. This kinematic and thermodynamic environment has
    resulted in a very favorable environment for minisupercell
    thunderstorms, and a corresponding increase for brief, transient
    tornadoes, especially to the east of the larger MCV. This MCV will
    continue to slowly move east through the afternoon, resulting in an
    increase in tornado potential across south-central Louisiana.

    Current expectation at this time is that the tornado potential
    should remain sufficiently brief and transient in nature at any one
    location to preclude a watch. However, severe weather outlook
    probabilities will be increased to 5-percent with the next outlook
    issuance (approximately 20UTC/3PM CDT) to account for this
    increasing potential. Convective trends will be monitored through
    the afternoon.

    ..Marsh/Guyer.. 05/17/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pHMRHZ0ds2_bOPSTvmdPHrT-s7wIOhNNAjWB2iWYay_ZYliGjwuYYYcg5hQTEPAbnwHVMshd$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

    LAT...LON 30129338 30399316 30349195 30209148 29839116 29469131
    29339185 29439261 29189291 29159341 29699337 30129338=20



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