• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0651

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 17 19:12:10 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 171912
    SPC MCD 171911=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0651
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0211 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

    Areas affected...Southeast/East-Central NM...TX South Plains...TX
    Permian Basin

    Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

    Valid 171911Z - 172115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm initiation is anticipated with the next hour
    or two across far southeast NM/far southwestern TX Panhandle/western
    Permian Basin. Supercells capable of all severe hazards are possible
    and a Tornado Watch will be issued to cover the severe threat.

    DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low over about 45
    miles northwest of ROW. A dryline extends southeastward from this
    low through much of southeast NM before arcing back more southward
    across the TX Trans Pecos. Northward returning low-level moisture
    also results in an effective warm front, which extends from the
    surface low northeastward through De Baca County NM and then back
    southeastward through the TX South Plains. Deepen cumulus has been
    observed within the area between these two boundaries, with a few
    orphan anvils recently noted.=20

    Expectation is for eventual convective initiation along the dryline
    as it continues eastward/northeastward. Air mass across the region
    has become moderately unstable, with mesoanalysis estimating 1000 to
    1500 J/kg of MLCAPE is in place with little to no convective
    inhibition. Effective deep layer shear is currently around 30 to 40
    kt, with a gradual increase anticipated over the next few hours as
    the shortwave trough moves through.=20

    Overall environment supports initial supercells capable of all
    severe hazards, including very large hail (i.e. greater than 2" in
    diameter) and tornadoes. Some upscale growth is anticipated over
    time, which will result in a transition to strong wind gusts as the
    primary severe threat.

    ..Mosier/Guyer.. 05/17/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rCtYHv7ZrCIO9NbZ0-PQUephN3UF3kAdj9xkB-YbhUC47gVrvo8egfl_TNl21_vppqwlHTfD$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 31470323 32660376 33620409 34150526 34690498 34940358
    34570160 32710115 31220165 31470323=20

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