• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0650

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 17 18:40:41 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 171840
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 171839=20
    OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-172045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0650
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0139 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

    Areas affected...Northeast NM...Southeast CO...Western OK
    Panhandle...Northwest TX Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 171839Z - 172045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase throughout
    the afternoon across northeast NM and southeast CO. Some severe
    storm are probable, with large hail and damaging wind gusts as the
    primary threats.

    DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis reveals a relatively complex
    pattern across the central and southern High Plains. Of interest for
    northeast NM and southeast CO is the weakening cold front extending
    from south-central CO southeastward through the TX Panhandle.
    Temperatures are relatively cool and dewpoints modest on either side
    of this boundary, but persistent low-level convergence is leading to
    some deeper cu, particularly in south-central CO. Additionally, area
    south of front across northeast NM to warm and destabilize. Recent
    TCC observation reported a temperature of 70 and a dewpoint of 53.
    Mesoanalysis estimates convective inhibition has eroded across this
    area, which is matched by modified forecast soundings. An increase
    in cumulus coverage has been noted over the past hour, with deeper
    cumulus recently observed closer to the high terrain where
    orographic effects and strengthening large-scale lift are promoting
    deeper ascent.

    Expectation is for continued destabilization coupled with
    strengthening ascent to result in eventual convective initiation
    away from the higher terrain. Convergence along the front will also
    likely result in storm development. A predominantly northeastward
    storm motion is expected, eventually taking the storms in the TX
    Panhandle. Some in situ development along the cold front is also
    possible. Overall vertical shear will remain modest, but still
    strong enough for organized storm structures, particularly given the
    steep mid-level lapse rates. Hail will be the primary severe threat,
    with some damaging wind gusts possible as well. Low-level wind
    profiles will be weak, but veering with height could still support a
    brief tornado or two.

    ..Mosier/Guyer.. 05/17/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vObZVh1GzwwjQTAQ6CKLaAM5-NAAvwIf359_Z0rOo6PZOfXZoS8ePbux-e8Tf72_m8OkMOL4$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 37240559 38010503 38250414 37950264 36600217 35150246
    35090614 37240559=20



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