• Indian-N: Tauktae W014

    From Weather Alert@1:2320/105 to All on Mon May 17 14:20:00 2021
    WTIO31 PGTW 171500
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 014//
    RMKS/
    1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 014
    01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
    WARNING POSITION:
    171200Z --- NEAR 20.0N 71.2E
    MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
    POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
    POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
    PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 71.2E
    ---
    FORECASTS:
    12 HRS, VALID AT:
    180000Z --- 21.6N 71.2E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
    24 HRS, VALID AT:
    181200Z --- 23.4N 71.8E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
    080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
    050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
    070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
    36 HRS, VALID AT:
    190000Z --- 25.2N 73.0E
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
    WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
    REMARKS:
    171500Z POSITION NEAR 20.4N 71.2E.
    17MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 113
    NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08
    KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
    IMAGERY (MSI) ALONG WITH THE ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
    (EIR) SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN
    SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE CONTINUAL LAND INTERACTION ALONG THE INDIAN
    COAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
    THE 10-NM RAGGED EYE AND A TIMELY 171130Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE. THE
    INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DEMS
    T5.0/90KTS, SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF THE PGTW
    DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T5.5/102KTS, THE SATELLITE CONSENSUS (SATCON)
    ESTIMATE OF 117KTS, AND THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) OF
    T6.0/115KTS. ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
    WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND
    SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST). TC 01A
    WILL BEGIN TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT
    TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
    SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR
    JAFARABAD, INDIA THROUGH TAU 12. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
    IN INTENSITY AS IT ENTERS AN AREA OF GREATER VWS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
    TERRAIN INTERACTION AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS NEARSHORE AS IT TRACKS
    NORTH. AFTER LANDFALL, THE CYCLONE WILL RAPIDLY ERODE AS IT TRACKS
    ACROSS THE RUGGED TERRAIN AND THE HIGHER VWS, LEADING TO THE OVERALL DISSIPATION BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
    AGREEMENT WITH AN EVEN AND GRADUAL SPREAD TO A MAXIMUM OF 65NM BY
    TAU 36, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
    172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z, AND 181500Z.//
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