• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0649

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 17 17:48:13 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 171748
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 171747=20
    TXZ000-171915-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0649
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1247 PM CDT Mon May 17 2021

    Areas affected...southeast Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 171747Z - 171915Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A localized hail and wind threat will persist in the
    near-term associated with a southeast moving cluster of
    thunderstorms. Elsewhere, a localized severe hail or wind threat
    will be possible as additional thunderstorms develop through the
    afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...A long-lived cluster of thunderstorms, currently
    approaching Round Rock, continues to move southeast across central
    Texas this afternoon. The most intense portion of this elongated
    cluster is occurring along and north of a residual southward moving
    outflow boundary from overnight convection. The airmass ahead of
    this thunderstorm complex remains extremely moist (precipitable
    water values approaching 2") and is increasingly unstable
    (mixed-layer CAPE between 2000-3000 J/kg) and uncapped (mixed-layer
    CINH less than 25 J/kg).

    Despite an increasingly favorable thermodynamic environment ahead of
    the complex, kinematically the environment is less favorable for
    severe potential as effective-layer shear and low-level shear weaken
    with eastward extent. Given the existing thunderstorm cluster
    organization, a continued threat for hail and wind will persist in
    the near-term. Additionally, given the extremely moist environment
    and the presence of an outflow boundary, a brief tornado or two
    cannot be ruled out. However, longer-term prospects for severe
    potential remain relatively low.

    Elsewhere, as mentioned, an increasingly unstable and uncapped
    environment across southeast Texas will allow for thunderstorm
    development through the afternoon. Localized potential for severe
    hail or a wet-microburst will exist, but coverage should remain too
    isolated to warrant a watch.

    ..Marsh/Guyer.. 05/17/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pf7RJtqolhc-MVMY67BxbIZc0KINkvMWkGx6GjyEJrx6h_wJui80yw-DX1Zq6jplC30OUcMc$=
    for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...FWD...EWX...

    LAT...LON 30499879 31249812 31309756 31089605 31109514 30819459
    30189437 29479446 29069502 29049588 29389705 29629828
    30189876 30499879=20



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