• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0648

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon May 17 14:19:10 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 171419
    SPC MCD 171418=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 0648
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0918 AM CDT Mon May 17 2021

    Areas affected...Far Southeast TX...Southwest LA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 171418Z - 171615Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A tornado or two is possible across southeast TX and
    southwest LA over the next few hours.

    DISCUSSION...Widespread showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across
    the region. Overall buoyancy is limited by this widespread
    convection, and most updrafts have been relatively transient and
    short-lived. However, occasional updrafts have been able to
    persist/deepen, which, given the strong low-level shear, has then
    resulted in rotation. Recent POE and LCH VAD profiles have sampled
    0-1 km storm-relative helicity of 350+ and 150+ m2/s2, respectively,
    over the past half hour. Moderate low-level flow responsible for
    this increase in low-level vertical shear will likely persist for at
    least the next few hours, resulting in at least a low-probability
    tornado threat with any deep/persistent updrafts during this time

    ..Mosier/Guyer.. 05/17/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qlMvfPW1rQuyCZiHDj0Q5S0Kn7XpJKWF125ZK9mHWWmxHQmhAXWU85H3a1YMO9WuFs_1ky_2$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 31239385 31449332 31429256 31179200 30219180 29549221
    29539268 29609313 29619371 29639385 29899421 30529417
    30839417 31239385=20

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